Presidential Predictions 2016Presidential Predictions 2016

Given today is “Super Tuesday,” we thought we’d opine on some of the statistics and predictions about various candidates making it to America’s top office.

According to British prognosticators wagering their own money, Hillary Clinton has a 53% chance of winning the general election.

However, Mr. Helmut Norpoth, a professor of political science at Stony Brook University, recently made headlines for his prediction that Donald Trump has a 97% chance of becoming president. Professor Norpoth’s model measures candidates’ performances in primaries and caucuses to gauge party unity and voter excitement and also focuses on certain patterns in electoral cycles. He claims that his model has correctly predicted every election (except one) for the previous 104 years (with obvious back testing).

Conversely, David Rothschild predicts that the Democratic candidate (Hillary Clinton) has a 64% chance of winning. Mr. Rothschild is an economist at Microsoft who makes his predictions by aggregating betting market data and polling. His previous research boasts successful predictions for 21 of the first 26 primary contests in 2012.

Whoever wins, it’s important that you understand the candidates’ key economic policy positions, whether it’s about income or estate taxes, foreign trade, or domestic government investment programs. If a candidate’s policies become law, they can have a significant impact on your personal financial outlook or business.

Marty Hanan is the founder and President of ValueScope, Inc., a valuation and financial advisory firm that specializes in valuing assets and businesses, and in helping business owners and spouses in business transactions and marital dissolutions.   Mr. Hanan is a Chartered Financial Analyst and has a B.S. Electrical Engineering with high honors from the University of Illinois and an MBA from Loyola University of Chicago.

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