Super Bowl 50 Expected to Break Records and New Ground in Viewership

Our research suggests it will, but not for a few more years.

Streaming Super Bowl 50

Last year’s Super Bowl XLIX (49) between the Patriots and Seahawks posted the largest television audience in U.S. history with 114.4 million viewers, breaking the prior record from Super Bowl XLVIII (48) between the Broncos and Seahawks. Super Bowl 50 (without the roman numerals this year) is widely expected to set a new record, given the strong ratings for the conference championship games and rumors and speculation that it will be the final game of future hall of fame quarterback Peyton Manning. ValueScope estimates the final TV ratings will reach about 119 million, an increase of 4.0% over last year’s record setting mark. Over the last 15 Super Bowls, an annual increase of greater than 4% has only occurred three times (2006, 2008 and 2010).

Streaming Super Bowl 50

Super Bowl Audience

The projected Super Bowl audience is expected to be 2.4x the audience of the AFC/NFC championship games, which averaged 49.7 million people two weeks ago. So what factors draw in an additional 69.3 million people to the NFL for one Sunday? A recent pre-Super Bowl survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF) reported that only 34.7% of Americans that plan to watch the Super Bowl cite the game as their primary reason. 17.7% of potential U.S. viewers cited commercials.

The NRF estimates that nearly 184 million people plan to watch at least part of Super Bowl 50. 43.3 million Americans are planning to host a Super Bowl party for friends and/or family. Another 70 million Americans plan on attending one of those watch parties. The younger demographic cited particular interest in the entertainment unrelated to the game’s players and coaches. Lady Gaga is scheduled to sing the national anthem prior to kickoff and Coldplay, Beyoncé and Bruno Mars will perform at halftime.

Role of Streaming

The role of streaming will also increase for this year’s Super Bowl. The game has been available on PCs and tablets since 2012. However, Super Bowl 50 will mark the first time the game will be shown via streaming devices such as the Xbox One, Apple TV, Roku and Chromecast. Streaming coverage is also expected through Amazon Fire and to Verizon mobile customers.

The NFL and its media partners are trying to evolve with the younger demographic. CBS (this year’s Super Bowl broadcast network) reported triple digit growth in viewers and minutes for the AFC championship game over the prior year. According to Variety magazine, only 18 of 70+ advertisers chose to run commercials on both TV and online. This year, CBS mandated that all sponsors run their commercials on both media formats. A 30 second ad on TV is reportedly running $4.5 million to over $5 million for Super Bowl 50. The price for digital ads was expected to be much cheaper.

Super Bowl 50 Expected To Break Records And New Ground In Viewership

Brent Shockley

SENIOR MANAGER
bshockley@valuescopeinc.com

 

Star Wars: Will the Return on Investment Awaken for Disney?

Our research suggests it will, but not for a few more years.

 

Disney's Roi Return On Investment Star Wars

Disney’s ROI Return on Investment Star Wars

When Star Wars: The Force Awakens arrives in theaters, the question isn’t whether it will shatter records—it’s by how much. Many sources estimate The Force Awakens will be the highest-grossing film of 2015 both domestically and internationally, with figures in excess of $1.5 billion. An analysis by Morgan Stanley in November estimates it will be among the top three highest-grossing films of all time.  While these are impressive numbers, what do they mean for Disney’s return on a $4 billion investment in Lucasfilm Ltd? Disney’s ROI Return on Investment Star Wars.

Merchandising

Merchandising has the potential to be even more lucrative than the film itself. When Disney bought Lucasfilm Ltd in 2012, they certainly had an eye toward integrating Star Wars into their already dominant brand merchandising, and that’s exactly what they’ve done. Star Wars-themed attractions are slated for construction in both Disneyland and Disney World. There are stormtrooper necklaces from Kay, a Millennium Falcon bed from Pottery Barn, and even intergalactic Coffee-mate creamers and a Luke Frywalker Mr. Potato Head. In 2014, global retail sales of Star Wars merchandise were $2.4 billion, making it the fifth-most popular licensed brand in the world—but another Morgan Stanley analysis estimates that The Force Awakens could double that figure to $4.9 billion, making it the number one best-selling brand worldwide.

Considerations

Considering these enormous numbers and the fact that The Force Awakens is just the first of five or six  Star Wars films slated to release by the end of 2020, it’s obvious that Disney’s purchase of Lucasfilm was a smart investment—but it may take longer than expected for Disney to break even on the purchase. For one, Disney doesn’t necessarily get royalties from the sale of every single Star Wars toy—more than likely, most of the toy companies pay a one-time licensing fee to Disney for rights to the brand and then keep the revenue for themselves.

Moreover, because of Hollywood’s opaque accounting practices, it’s unclear how much of a cut Disney will receive from the first few weeks of ticket sales. We estimate that, when all is said and done, Disney will retain anywhere from 40% to 60% of the film’s gross ticket sales—but even if The Force Awakens exceeds every expectation and pulls in $1.5 or $2 billion, that won’t be enough to break even on their buyout of Lucasfilm.

The Crowd

However, the great thing about a franchise like Star Wars is its ability to reliably draw a crowd again and again. Disney has a Star Wars film slated to be released every year between now and 2019. Even if next year’s Rogue One spin-off doesn’t quite pull Disney’s revenues over the $4 billion mark, Episode VIII almost certainly will. It may end up taking five years, but by the eighth installment’s release in 2017, Bob Iger and the rest of Disney can confidently say they made a good investment.


Tags: Disney’s ROI Return on Investment Star Wars

Star Wars: Will The Return On Investment Awaken For Disney?

Brent Shockley

SENIOR MANAGER
bshockley@valuescopeinc.com